The politics of immigration continue to dominate headlines worldwide.

The tensions between national protectionism, free trade arrangements and the need to attract skilled workers and foreign investors create conflict and inconsistency in many jurisdictions. This can be seen most acutely in the United Kingdom, where the net migration target (the aim to reduce the annual population increase caused by migration to the tens of thousands from a high of nearly 350,000) continues to be the central plank of government immigration policy. The result of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 is beginning to impact on the figures. In the 12 months from June 2016 to June 2017, migration from the EU decreased by over 100,000, causing a significant drop in net migration. Undoubtedly this is the consequence of uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom as a long-term destination of choice – EU workers find the country less attractive. The referendum result has therefore assisted in the delivery of the overarching policy.

However, this reduction in the supply of workers from the EU has resulted in a spike in demand for workers from the rest of the world. The consequence of this has been friction in the Tier 2 (General) scheme, where demand has exceeded supply of Certificates of Sponsorship for the final four months of the allocation year (April to March). The government imposes a strict limit of 20,700 Certificates of Sponsorship for skilled new hires from abroad across all employers annually, regardless of business needs. This overall annual allocation is broadly equally divided across 12 monthly allocations. The final four months of the year were oversubscribed, causing significant frustrations for the many businesses that cannot sponsor the workers they need. This is unhelpful when added to the general business uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom's post-Brexit trading arrangements.

The reduction in worker supply dictated by government policy does not appear to have resulted in an 'upskilling' of the local labour market or a reduction in UK unemployment (which in any event remains fairly low). There is a risk that the strict migration policy and uncertainty caused by Brexit will result in a slowdown in the economy, as businesses struggle to fill skilled jobs. Is this really a sensible immigration policy for Britain in the 21st century?

Furthermore, setting aside the overall policy wisdom, a major question mark hangs over whether the Home Office has the operational capacity to handle a registration and settlement scheme on the scale required to manage Brexit. There are approximately three million EU nationals in the United Kingdom and each one of them will have to engage with a new 'light-touch' process between now and the end of the transition period in 2021. We are promised a streamlined digital scheme that will minimise inconvenience and delay, but how can this promise be squared with the need for data integrity and avoidance of fraud? Apparently 1,200 new caseworkers are being recruited to carry the burden. However, whether they can be recruited and trained in time to ensure a seamless transition to a new set of immigration arrangements remains to be seen.

The future of post-Brexit immigration policy remains opaque. The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) will not issue its substantive report on EEA nationals and the UK labour market until September, although earlier indications of its thinking are expected. A White Paper and Immigration Bill will then follow. It will be some time before clarity is reached on the new immigration arrangements for 'taking back control'.

The Home Affairs Committee of the House of Commons has been highly critical of the government's Brexit preparedness in the context of immigration. The Committee's report (February 2018) expresses frustration at the lack of administrative preparedness and policy definition, and there is a sense that the government is feeling its way on the issues rather than providing firm leadership. By the time the next edition of The Corporate Immigration Review is published, the immigration road map to Brexit should be much clearer.

Donald Trump's 'America First' immigration and trade policies provide an echo of the situation in the United Kingdom. As with Brexit, we see in the United States the long-term effects of populism at the ballot box. The realisation of the President's promise to start building a border wall on 'day one' has proven more elusive in practice than his campaign-trail proclamations suggested. He is learning that the implementation of ideas is more complex in Washington than it is when undertaking more traditional real-estate deals in the private sector (and particularly when Congress controls the budget). However, Trump's hard-line approach to immigration policy is beginning to bite in less symbolic ways. On the ground, applications to the authorities are receiving considerably more scrutiny than was the case under the Obama administration, attracting harsher refusals or calls for additional evidence. US immigration practitioners report significant uncertainty in respect of the outcome of their cases. Paradoxically, this uncertainty results in a spike in business for lawyers, as applicants seek guidance and assistance in navigating a fast-changing legal landscape.

It is perhaps the fate of the 'Dreamers' that speaks most eloquently to the shift in approach to immigration policy in the United States. Named after the failed Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, the Dreamers are migrants who were brought to the United States illegally as children and who applied for renewable two-year work permits under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, introduced under Barack Obama in 2012. In 2017, the Trump administration rescinded DACA and announced that, from 5 March 2018, the protection it offered to almost 800,000 people would begin to expire. Since then these individuals have found themselves at the centre of a political impasse that shut down the US federal government for three days. The Democrats had refused to agree to a budget deal that did not offer permanent protection to the Dreamers, but on 22 January they relented, agreeing to a short-term spending package to fund the government until 8 February, in exchange for a pledge by Republicans to address the fate of DACA recipients. At the time of writing, the Dreamers' future remains uncertain. Whether they are provided with a route to citizenship or face deportation will depend on the Democrats' ability to negotiate with a Republican Party dominated by hardliners and an unpredictable president.

Travelling east, we can see the tentacles of protectionism spreading to Singapore, where the Fair Consideration Framework (the Framework) approaches it fourth anniversary. Businesses are witnessing increased scrutiny of foreign manpower profiles, Employment Pass applications and hiring practices.

The Framework was introduced in 2014 as part of the Singapore government's overall strategy to promote fair employment practices and to strengthen the Singaporean core in the local workforce. Since then, the practical measures designed to facilitate this have been increasingly felt by companies and individual foreigners. The Ministry of Manpower (MOM) continues to emphasise that a quota for Employment Passes is not on the agenda, and instead that foreign workforce growth must be moderated to ensure it functions as an enhancement to the local workforce in a sustainable manner. In essence, the measures aim to maintain the delicate equilibrium between protecting and nurturing the local workforce, while also capitalising on available foreign talent to enable the longer-term growth and expansion of the Singapore economy. Development of the local workforce is key, as unemployment rises and net growth in the local economy begins to slow down.

The MOM wishes to see employers actively interpreting the spirit of the Framework in demonstration of their commitment to the overarching policy. The authorities will not shy away from scrutinising a company's hiring practices and curtailing work pass privileges in circumstances where firms are found to have nationality-based or other discriminatory HR practices. Around 300 countries are currently estimated to be on the MOM watch list and are required to work with Singapore's Tripartite Alliance for Fair and Progressive Employment Practices to demonstrate their commitment to improving internal hiring and employment practices. The term 'triple weak' has been used to describe companies found not to be actively nurturing a strong Singaporean core or demonstrating a strong relevance to Singapore's economy and society.

Immigration practitioners, wherever they live, face a constant stream of political scrutiny, policy development and legislative change. Now in its eighth edition, The Corporate Immigration Review contains the thinking of the world's leading business immigration lawyers. We are immensely grateful to them all for their contributions.

Chris Magrath and Ben Sheldrick
Magrath Sheldrick LLP
London
May 2018